Ну что, ИнвестБанки потянулись в Заповедник!
РенКап написал первый отчет по Беларуси. Сейчас буду читать...
Отчет по запросу. 53 стр текста про РБ от маскальского инвестбанка
Belarus’s economy remains largely state-owned and cash-strapped, and therefore lacks the ability to modernise. In order to survive, it needs to attract private capital, as Minsk officials appear to fully to realise. In the near term, we expect to see the onset of a major privatisation effort, with Belarusian companies participating in M&A transactions and new listings, both domestically and abroad. Furthermore, in the very near future, we expect a wave of debt deals to hit the market.
Transition model has had some success. Since 2007, the Belarusian president and government have implemented a wide range of measures aimed at easing state regulation of business and improving the investment climate, including streamlining the business registration process, easing taxation and creating a capital market. World Bank surveys on the ease of doing business have shown a marked improvement by Belarus over a very short space of time. In recent years, numerous strategic overseas investors have entered the Belarusian market.
Relations with Russia are adapting, but retain primary importance. Developing its relationship with the EU while not distancing itself from Russia will be central to Belarus’s foreign policy agenda. Subsidies (in the form of cheap Russian energy) have been central to Belarus’s transition. Belarus is now at an important inflection point as Russia starts to re-examine its relationship with the country. As Belarus faces up to this new reality, we believe it will need to build closer relationships with Europe and press ahead with the liberalisation process.
Belarus has avoided the worst of the global financial crisis largely due to strong growth in fixed investment, driven by housing construction financed under government programmes. This helped to offset weakness in consumption and external demand. The crisis negatively affected Belarus through foreign trade channels from the contracting Russian economy, and led to a loss of current account sustainability.
Exchange rate and monetary policy driven by low foreign reserves. Belarus’s foreign trade in goods has been in deficit for the past 15 years, while the surplus in the capital account was rather small until 2007. Therefore, Belarus was unable to accumulate adequate foreign reserves before the crisis. In response to the external shocks of 2008-2009, the Belarusian authorities were forced to devalue the Belarusian rouble and to implement a prudent monetary and fiscal policy aimed at avoiding further pressure on the current account from internal demand.
Prudent budget policy results in high liquidity in public finances. Belarus has a policy of not running budget deficits, and for the past five years, the republic’s budget and social security fund have been adopted and executed in surplus. Despite a sharp fall in budget revenues during the crisis, Belarusian authorities managed to keep the budget in surplus by tightening spending. In the light of the zero-budget-deficit policy, external government borrowings were aimed at supporting the country’s foreign reserves. Accordingly, we think the government has likely accumulated a substantial volume of funds in its account. This high level of liquidity will clearly help the government to withstand any short-term gaps in budget revenues.
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